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Final arguments are being made before Australia's vote to create Indigenous Voice_我的网站

一 |     CANBERRA, Australia -- Opposing campaigners made their final pitches on Friday over changing the Australia's constitution to acknowledge a place for Indigenous Australians on the eve of the nation's first referendum in a generation.The referendum has the potential to amend Australia’s founding legal document for the first time since 1977. But opinion polls suggest that the amendment will be rejected as more than four-in-five referendums have been in the past.Australians are being asked to alter the constitution to recognize the “First Peoples of Australia” by establishing an Indigenous Voice to Parliament.The committee comprised of and chosen by Indigenous Australians would advise the Parliament and government on issues that affect the nation’s most disadvantaged ethnic minority.Indigenous Australians account for only 3.8% of Australia’s population. But they die on average eight years younger than the wider population, have a suicide rate twice that of the national average and suffer from diseases in the remote Outback that have been eradicated from other wealthy countries.Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, a leading Voice advocate, cited the Israel-Hamas war to underscore why Australians should vote “yes” out of kindness toward the Indigenous population.“This week of all weeks where we see such trauma in the world, there is nothing — no cost — to Australians showing kindness, thinking with their heart as well as their head, when they enter the polling booth tomorrow and vote ‘yes,’” Albanese said.“Kindness costs nothing. Thinking of others costs nothing. This is a time where Australians have that opportunity to show the generosity of spirit that I see in the Australian character where at the worst of times we always see the best of the Australian character,” Albanese added.Opposition leader Peter Dutton, whose conservative party opposes the Voice, said polling showing declining support for the referendum over the past year was evidence Albanese failed to convince voters of the benefits of the Voice. “He’s instinctively won their hearts because Australians do want better outcomes for Indigenous Australians, but he hasn’t won their minds,” Dutton told Australian Broadcasting Corp.Indigenous activist Robbie Thorpe drew attention to Indigenous division over the Voice this week by applying for a High Court injunction to stop the referendum. “The referendum is an attack on Aboriginal Sovereignty,” Thorpe said in a statement on Friday.But the High Court said his writ had been rejected on Thursday on the grounds that it appeared to be an abuse of the court process, frivolous, vexatious or outside the court’s jurisdiction.Thorpe is among so-called progressive “no” campaigners who argue an Indigenous committee with no power of veto over legislation is not a sufficiently radical change.Many progressives argue the constitution should more importantly acknowledge that Indigenous Australians never ceded their land to British colonizers and a treaty was a higher priority than a Voice.Conservative “no” campaigners argue the Voice is too radical and the courts could interpret its powers in unpredictable ways.Some Indigenous people don’t have faith that the Voice’s membership would represent their diverse priorities.“Yes” campaigner Kyam Maher, an Indigenous man who is South Australia state’s attorney general, said the question he was most often asked by thousands of voters was what result Indigenous Australians wanted.“I can say absolutely and overwhelmingly Aboriginal people want their fellow Australians to vote ‘yes’ tomorrow,” Maher said.An opinion poll published this week supported Maher's view that a majority of Indigenous Australians wanted the Voice although that support had eroded since early 2023.Polling suggests the referendum will lose despite Australia’s peak legal, business, faith and sporting groups overwhelmingly supporting the Voice.Anne Twomey, a Sydney University constitutional law expert and a member of the Constitutional Expert Group that advised the government on drafting the referendum question, said she feared that Australian lawmakers might give up trying to change the constitution if the referendum fails.“I think it is a big concern if we end up with a constitution that’s frozen in time that we can’t change,” Twomey said.“In practice around the world, when a constitution becomes frozen and out of date with the world that it operates in, it becomes brittle and when there’s ever any stress on it, it does tend to break,” she added.___Follow AP's Asia-Pacific coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/asia-pacific。    那么相当于特斯拉的市值未来将要达到4万亿美元的高位。不过，说完这段话后，马斯克又补了一句：“我知道很难，这需要我们非常努力、需求有创意的新产品、管理好扩张，以及好运气。”马斯克所说的新产品，大概率指的就是“廉价特斯拉”。半价Model 3在路上10月20日，特斯拉发布了2022年第三季度财报。财报数据显示，特斯拉已经连续13个季度盈利，自由现金流高达33亿美元。在随后的财报电话会上，马斯克回应了关于新车型、FSD完全自动驾驶、Semi半挂卡车交付等等问题。其中，备受关注的莫过于“廉价车型”。在由股东投票选出的财报问答中，有这么一个问题是：“从特斯拉的第一个Model S/X平台，升级到第二个Model 3/Y平台，COGS（主营业务成本）降低了50%。什么时候特斯拉发布第三个平台，COGS降低到什么水平？”马斯克的回答是，还没有没有确切的日期，但特斯拉开发团队的主要精力是开发下一代车型。他很确定的是，“下一代车型会更小，而且产量将超过特斯拉所有产品的总和。”至于成本问题，马斯克希望能够再次达到50%的降幅。也就是说，相比现在的Model 3/Y，成本再下降一半。众所周知，特斯拉在全球范围内的车型价格变化都是遵循着“以成本定价”的原则。

二 | 成本越低，那么售价也就越低，反之亦然。目前，国产特斯拉Model 3入门级车型的补贴前售价为290,988元，如果成本减半的话，售价大概率也能减半——这意味着，15万元买辆特斯拉指日可待。当然，“半价特斯拉”短期内不会问世，但成本下降50%这一数字并非空穴来风。要知道，特斯拉的成本下降，一直以来都是通过规模化效应来推动的。在财报电话会上，马斯克表示，我们相信特斯拉的收入和产量将以50%的复合年增长率增长。

三 | 而根据最新财报数据显示，2022年第三季度，特斯拉全球生产了超过36.5万辆汽车，同比增长54%；交付了超过34.3万辆汽车，同比增长42%。而总收入达到215亿美元，同比增长56%。在收入和产量方面，当前已经超过了50%的增速。
（图源：特斯拉财报）较高的收入增长，也推动着整体营收水平上扬。特斯拉在第三季度GAAP营业利润为37亿美元，营业利润率为17.2%；第三季度GAAP净利润为33亿美元，非GAAP净利润（未计股份支付费用）为37亿美元；第三季度GAAP汽车毛利率为27.9%。

四 |
（图源：特斯拉财报）在增长的态势中，特斯拉依旧是面临着挑战。比如，在特斯拉汽车毛利率已经连续两个季度低于30%。另外，有投资者对特斯拉需求侧表示担忧，特别是中国市场方面，特斯拉9月在华电动车销量增速为近五个月最低水平。

五 | 面对种种的客观因素，马斯克对特斯拉的市场需求依旧表示自信——我们在第四季度的需求强劲。“无论是否发生什么，我们都不会大幅减产。”交付仍是大问题目前让特斯拉头疼的问题确实不是需求，而是交付。

六 | 当前，特斯拉五座工作已经进入“火力全开”的状态。其中上海特斯拉超级工厂的产能最大，超过了75万辆的年产能，主要生产Model 3/Y；其次是美国加州的工厂，年产55万辆Model 3/Y和10万辆Model S/X；得州超级工厂开工不到半年，但已经产了10,000辆Model Y；刚起步没多久的柏林工厂，相对有点“拖后腿”。单周生产了超过2000辆搭载2170电池的Model Y，仍处在产能爬坡阶段。负责生产的电动卡车Semi的内华达工厂，目前已进入早期生产阶段，首期交付计划于今年12月开启。

七 | 在财报电话会上，马斯克明确表示：12月1日，他将亲自向百事公司交付特斯拉电动卡车Semi。

八 | 相比以往较为确信的用词，在谈到新车型Semi交付时马斯克显得格外谨慎。

九 | 他还说，特斯拉“暂时计划”到2024年在北美市场交付5万辆电动卡车Semi。
（图源：特斯拉财报）从目前来看，特斯拉的车辆交付确实有些难。特斯拉CFO Kirkhorn在电话会上称，在三季度交付量中，三分之一集中在最近两周内，预计今年的年度交付增速将低于50%。

十 | 而马斯克在回应三季度新车交付受阻问题时说：“没有足够多的船只，没有足够多的火车，没有足够多的货车。”特斯拉方面表示，他们在每季度最后几周的大批量交付，这导致运输成本及物流不稳定性增加。

十一 | 因此，公司开始向更平稳的交付节奏过渡。基于此，公司在季度末会有大量车辆仍在运输过程中。“我们预期季度内更平顺的出厂物流，将能够降低每辆车的运输成本。

十二 | ”
（图源：特斯拉财报）其次，FSD完全自动驾驶功能交付也在“缓缓推进”。在财报电话会上，马斯克重申，特斯拉的目标是在今年年底实现测试版FSD系统的广泛推送。“本季度，我们预计FSD系统将在北美市场进行大规模推送。”他还说，大规模推送将在大约一个月后进行，任何一位购买了FSD软件包的用户，会立刻使用到该功能。

十三 | 虽然，目前不太确定FSD是否会同步向中国区的用户推送，但特斯拉在中国官网的Autopilot自动辅助驾驶介绍页，已经更换了Tesla Vision的描述——视觉处理系统能够探测附近车辆以降低碰撞风险，并辅助泊车。

十四 | 此前，特斯拉官网就已经公布过：从2022年10月上旬开始，为北美、欧洲等地区的所有Model 3和Model Y不再使用超声波传感器，而是完全依靠Tesla Vision来提供自动驾驶仪、增强型自动驾驶仪、FSD功能和主动安全功能。
（图源：特斯拉官网）另外，4680电池的量产也在缓缓推进。

十五 | 特斯拉在财报电话会作出回应，目前4680电池在德州奥斯汀工厂进行部署，希望每周生产1000套以上4680电池，目前正在努力提高北美产能，但在生产、执行等方面存在一些难以克服的困难和挑战，物流存在严重的问题。在谈到电池原材料时，马斯克被问到“是否考虑挖矿”。他的回答是：“无论任何限制性因素，我们都会关注。如果我们不得不通过挖矿来获取电动汽车的原材料，那我们就会去挖矿。

十六 | ”在地球上，看起来没有什么东西可以阻碍马斯克了，唯独只能放缓他前进的脚步。

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